The EXPLOR Awards are back at TMRE this year! This week, we’ll be taking a look at the four finalists!
Finalist #2: Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company and Infosurv Inc.
How Wrigley Harnessed The Wisdom of Crowds to Predict New Product Success
Duane Burton, Market Research, Wm. Wrigley Jr. Company
Jared Heyman, President, Infosurv Inc.
Prediction markets harness “the wisdom of crowds” to acigley used a prediction market to assign accurate probabilities of success to several product innovations. With lower cost, greater accuracy, and faster speed than traditional concept screening techniques, we believe prediction markets are poised to revolutionize the way new ideas are screened and tested.
The 2010 EXPLOR Awards winner will be announced at The Market Research Event, taking place November 8-10, 2010.
Logos courtesy of Infosurv.com and Wrigley.com
In the weeks leading up to The Market Research Event 2009, we’re going to be hearing from the speakers of The Market Research Event. This week we have Jared Heyman, Founder & President Infosurv Inc, who will be presenting “Prediction Markets 101: Tapping the wisdom of crowds to predict the future,” in the Tools & Techniques Track on Wednesday, October 21, 2009. To learn more about The Market Research Event, download the brochure here!
1. Tell us about a project you are working on or recently completed that you are proud of?
Heyman: I recently wrapped up a validation study using the iCE (Infosurv Concept Exchange) prediction market and was proud of the results. We setup a “virtual stock market” to test 15 new lottery ticket concepts for a major state lottery, comparing the results of the market to the actual in-market sales performance of each concept in order to measure the predictive validity of this new concept testing tool. The prediction market accurately predicted the sales performance of 14 of the 15 new product concepts — not bad.
2. Think ahead 5 years, what major changes for MR/Consumer Insights do you see?
Heyman: I’m pretty bullish on the prospects for prediction market for market research. They’ve been used for years to accurately forecast election outcomes, movie box office receipts, sporting event outcomes, and corporate financial performance. It’s just a matter of time before market researchers are using them regularly to predict new product sales performance.
3. What inspired you to get in the field? What keeps you motivated?
Heyman: I got into the field over a decade ago because I loved the ability to answer business questions objectively — with data, not guesses. What keeps me motivated is the innovative new research techniques that we’re watching emerge — things like neuroimaging, emotional measurement, and prediction markets.
Each Tuesday, we’ll begin looking at the companies who are participating in The Market Research Event. Today, we’re featuring infosurv.
The Infosurv Concept Exchange (iCE) is an online prediction market system optimized for concept testing. Fueled by “the wisdom of crowds” iCE is designed to help companies test new product or marketing concepts more accurately, quickly, and affordably than using focus groups or surveys. Rather than answer survey questions, iCE respondents participate in a “virtual stock market” where they can buy and sell shares in the concepts tested. Share price movements are then analyzed to accurately predict which concept will perform best in-market. You can visit the iCE website at
Visit infosurv’s website here.
Hear more from infosurv and other leaders in market research at The Market Research Event this October 18-21 in Las Vegas!