On the last day of FOCI14, Ray Kurzweil gave an inspiring
talk about rapid rates of innovation advancement, and how most people
underestimate them. Kurzweil
is uniquely qualified to talk about innovation; unlike most speakers, he has
actually accomplished it. He’s the inventor behind optical character
recognition (OCR), print-to-speech reading for the visually-impaired, and
perhaps most famously for the first music synthesizer that recreates orchestral
instrument sounds, including the piano. Use Dragon dictate software? Thank Ray.
So what does this have to do with market research? Why would
the Future of Consumer Intelligence have Ray as one of their featured keynotes?
struggle with innovation in our industry. We often debate:
actual paying customers (whether corporate researchers or research firms)?
want to get distracted by false hopes.
But while we struggle with it, Ray seems to have developed some
ways of thinking about innovation that may help.
First, Ray promotes the power of exponential growth, which
he himself stated can be hard to understand. And, he said, the concept of exponential
growth can be met with skepticism. As evidence, Ray mentioned how in the early 1980s,
he predicted a worldwide internet connecting 100s of millions of people by the late
90s. But back then, his colleagues thought he was crazy because at the time the
ARPANET (the DOD’s network which is often credited as the ‘first’ version the
internet) was connecting only 2,000 scientists. But Ray points out that their assumptions
about potential growth and scale was based on linear thinking. He was thinking exponentially. And now we know, he was right.
growth assumptions isn’t perfect. Though Ray asserts that of his many predictions,
86% have been correct.
Or more simply: some innovations are poised to be
revolutionary, and they will grow exponentially.
to grasp because they represent ‘exponential’ versus linear growth? Hold that
thought! Let’s get to part two of his thesis first.
In part of his FOCI14 keynote, Ray pointed to the well-known
hype curve, a model of thinking about the phases of adoption for innovative products.
While the hype curve’s validity can be debated, and is (see
article), the basic concept is certainly supported by lots of anecdotal cases. An innovative new technology or invention
gets launched, and phases of early-enthusiasm lead to over-inflated expectations
(hype), get followed by phases of disillusionment, then ultimately, actual
growth. Well, for successful products, growth. For the others, a slow death may
be the outcome.
Or more simply, some ideas put forth as ‘innovative’ simply
are not destined for success; these things will likely die in the
disillusionment phase, or remain very niche markets.
Tempered by Timing
As Ray was giving his talk, his two lessons seemed to
intersect. On one hand, we have to be prepared for innovations that truly can
develop at an exponential rate’causing significant disruption to existing ways of
doing things. On the other, we have to
be cautious about overhyped innovations’not every innovation presented as an ultimate
growth area will survive the disillusionment phase; some will simply die.
Big data and social media research both seem to be on the cusp of the disillusionment
phases; overhyped and maybe overpromised. Does that mean they will end up
discarded? I don’t think so (I for one have had some great successes with SMR),
but rumors of their market research world dominance will certainly be adjusted.
innovative. We have to be wary of what gets promoted as innovative. To me something
is only a market research innovation if it fundamentally changes the cost,
speed and/or qualify of our work as researchers. Something that is cool, but doesn’t actually
bring anything new to the table in terms of how we discover or measure customer
attitudes and behaviors, is likely to be an interesting diversion’not something
destined for exponential growth.
that have grown exponentially. The only example I can think of that comes
close is the growth of online surveys. No matter how you measure it, the growth
has been more than linear: number of projects, number of completes, or revenue (from
software sales, online panel sales, and related online survey tools). So ask
yourself, of all the solutions being put forth as innovative in research today,
do you see any as likely to grow as rapidly as did online surveys?
This post was written by Kathryn Korostoff. Kathryn is the President of Research Rockstar, the only independent company dedicated to market research training (online and in-person). Many of Research Rockstar’s classes are MRA-certified, and Research Rockstar offers class bundles leading to MRA Certification. She is also offering FOCI attendees a free class here: CLICK. KKorostoff@ResearchRockstar.com, 508.691.6004 ext 705, @ResearchRocks.